美国TikTok招商经理分享最新动态，强调达人营销的作用

TikTok Shop美国小店-Jerry @忠哥-出海研究院

The Almanack of Naval Ravikant 纳瓦尔宝典

In the context of decision-making, inversion involves considering the opposite or negative outcomes of a decision before making a choice. This helps in identifying potential pitfalls or risks and making more informed decisions. Inversion is a valuable skill that can be applied in various aspects of life, such as personal relationships, business, and problem-solving.

Inversion 反向思考

地图并不是地形本身，要以实际勘察确认为主，宏观可以参考，但微观需要实践验证

The Map is Not the Territory 地图不是地形本身

“能力”一词是指有效或高效地做某事的能力或技能。 它还可以指执行特定任务或工作所需的知识或专业知识。 在专业背景下，可以通过评估或认证来评估能力。

Circle of Competence 能力圈

On May 24, Michelle Yeoh, Academy-award winning actress, advocate, and United Nations Development Programme Goodwill ambassador, offered the HLS Class of 2023 some advice during the Class Day celebration on Wednesday as they were poised to dive into “a presumably bright but unpredictable future.”

杨紫琼 哈佛法学院2023届毕业演讲

a philosophical concept that suggests breaking down complex problems or ideas into fundamental principles or basic truths. It involves reasoning from these foundational principles to understand and solve problems.

First Principles 第一性原理

 记录痛苦第一篇

It is a noun that refers to the state of being happy or experiencing joy.

Learning Happiness 学习幸福

a principle that suggests that the simplest explanation or solution is usually the correct one. It is a problem-solving principle and a heuristic tool used in various fields, including science, philosophy, and problem-solving.

Occam’s Razor 奥卡姆剃刀（简约法则）

A social norm that is based on the idea of giving and receiving in equal measure. In the context of social psychology, reciprocity is often studied as a principle of influence, where people feel obligated to reciprocate when someone does something for them. This principle is often used in marketing and sales, where businesses offer free samples or gifts in the hope that customers will feel obliged to make a purchase in return.

Influence 影响力 1/6 Reciprocity 互惠（反作用力）

The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that the total entropy of an isolated system can never decrease over time, and that spontaneous processes always lead to an increase in entropy.

热力学第二定律

张一鸣：融资三件事

The balance sheet, the income statement, and the cash flow statement. These three financial statements are important tools for assessing a company's financial health and performance. They are often prepared by companies to provide information to investors, creditors, and other stakeholders.

会计基础：三大报表的制作与整理

There are several common financial ratios used by analysts and investors to assess a company's financial health and performance. These include liquidity ratios, profitability ratios, efficiency ratios, and leverage ratios.

常见财务比率

Evolution is the process of change in all forms of life over generations, leading to the diversity of species we see today.

Evolution 进化论

A captain can also be a person in charge of a group, such as a ship, aircraft, police or fire department, or sports team. For example, the captain of a high school soccer team is usually an elected or appointed leader.

何谓最高水平的统帅？

Survivorship bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when we focus on the individuals or things that have "survived" a particular process or experience, while ignoring those that did not. It leads to an overestimation of success or a skewed understanding of a situation because we only consider the successes or survivors.

幸存者偏差 

投流是能规模化复制的，人效最高，最适合跨境商家的运营方式。要做好投流业务，需要从选品-素材-投放三个方面下功夫。

ADS 投流派经验分享 @大航海时代

不断地有高估自己，低估困难的情况出现，记录下来用于自省。

记录反思第一篇

The theory of relativity, formulated by Albert Einstein, is a scientific theory that describes the laws of physics for objects moving at a constant speed in inertial frames of reference.

Relativity 相对论

Almost everyone can anticipate the immediate results of their actions. This type of first-order thinking is easy and safe, but it’s also a way to ensure you get the same results that everyone else gets. Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to consider not only our actions and their immediate consequences but the subsequent effects of those actions as well. Failing to consider the second and third-order effects can unleash disaster.

Second-order Thinking 二阶思维

there is a chasm between the early adopters of a new technology and the mainstream market. In order to cross this chasm, a company must make a number of changes to its marketing and sales strategy.

Crossing the Chasm 跨越鸿沟理论

A thought experiment is a hypothetical situation that uses imagination to logically reason out a solution to a difficult question. Thought experiments are similar to real experiments, but they take place in the mind.

Thought Experiment 思想实验

Consistency is important in keeping commitments as it helps to establish trust and credibility. When one consistently follows through on their promises, others are more likely to believe in their words and rely on them in the future.

Influence 影响力 2/6 承诺与一致性

The key principles of Atomic Habits include making small incremental changes, focusing on the process rather than the outcome, stacking habits, and implementing effective habit tracking.

Atomic Habits 原子能习惯

中华人民共和国的行政划区包括省、自治区、直辖市和特别行政区，共有34个省级行政区划。其组织架构主要由国务院、地方各级人民政府和各部委、委员会组成，同时还包括人大、政协等。

中华人民共和国行政划区、组织架构

管理制度设计涉及到组织内部的规章制度、流程设计以及权责界定，而官僚体系则指的是官员和行政机构构成的管理体系。在现代管理理论中，管理制度设计旨在提高组织的效率和灵活性，减少官僚体系可能带来的僵化和低效问题。它们之间的关系在组织和政府管理中至关重要，需要综合考虑权力结构、决策流程、激励机制等因素。

管理制度设计与官僚体系

行政区域的划分通常由政府或相关行政机构根据一定的标准和法律规定进行。在许多国家，行政区域的划分通常是根据地理位置、人口数量、行政需求和历史因素来进行的。一般来说，国家会根据不同的需要将其领土划分为省、州、县、市等不同级别的行政区域，并在每个级别设立相应的行政机构来管理和治理该区域。行政区域的划分旨在更好地管理和服务于该区域内的居民，确保公共事务的顺利进行。

行政区域是如何划分的？

中美对比专题涉及宏观经济领域的比较，通常包括国家的经济总体情况、GDP增长率、失业率、通货膨胀率、贸易政策等方面的比较。这一专题可以帮助人们了解中美两国在宏观经济层面上的异同，以及它们在全球经济中的地位和影响力。

中美对比专题：宏观

2022/2023两年时间，中国一线城市的房价变化

过去两年，北上的房价究竟跌了多少？

从宏观到微观了解城市：GDP-产业结构-收入-房价-医疗-教育

了解苏州

中国房价到底了吗？

关于加杠杆的思考

•  微观经济学基础概念 微观经济学是研究单个经济主体（如个人、家庭、企业）在资源稀缺条件下的决策行为及其相互关系的学科。它主要关注个体如何做出选择，以及市场是如何运作的。 
• 📈 稀缺性和选择 稀缺性是经济学研究的核心概念，它指人们的需求大于可获得的资源。由于资源有限，人们必须做出选择，权衡不同选择之间的利弊。 
• ⚖️ 供需和市场均衡 供需是市场经济的基础，它指的是商品或服务的供给量和需求量之间的关系。当供给量大于需求量时，价格会下降；当需求量大于供给量时，价格会上涨。市场均衡是指供给量和需求量相等时的状态。 

微观经济学-基础概念

• 🌐 需求曲线概述 需求曲线是经济学中一个重要的概念，它显示了在其他条件不变的情况下，商品的价格与其需求量之间的关系。需求曲线通常呈负斜率，这意味着价格越高，需求量越低，反之亦然。 来源
• 📚 需求曲线的绘制 需求曲线可以通过绘制价格和需求量之间的关系图来表示。横轴表示价格，纵轴表示需求量。需求曲线通常从左上角开始，向下倾斜。 来源
• 📊 影响需求曲线的因素 影响需求曲线的因素有很多，包括商品的价格、消费者收入、替代品的价格、互补品的价格、消费者偏好和预期等。 

需求曲线

🕵️‍♀️ 从供需关系判断底部
    ◦ 房价下跌的底部通常意味着市场供需关系达到平衡，即房屋供应量与需求量基本持平。
    ◦ 此时，房价下跌趋势将会减缓或停止，甚至可能出现反弹。
    ◦ 判断供需关系是否平衡，可以参考以下指标：
        ▪ 房屋库存量：库存量下降或维持在低位，说明需求旺盛，房价下跌空间有限。
        ▪ 房屋销售量：销售量回升或保持稳定，说明市场需求有所恢复，房价下跌压力减轻。
        ▪ 房屋空置率：空置率下降或维持在低位，说明房屋供不应求，房价下跌空间有限。

宏观上房价在下跌曲线判断底部的2个逻辑

📈 组织战略的四个因素 企业在选择组织架构时需要考虑四个因素：动态环境、生命周期阶段、企业战略和规模。刘润的企业生命周期模型可以帮助企业更好地理解自身所处的阶段，并选择合适的组织战略。 

刘润-企业生命周期：不同生命周期的企业，如何选择组织战略

刘润-企业能量模型

刘润-创新利润模型

刘润-企业价值模型

刘润-新零售模型

• 📈 供应曲线概述 供应曲线表示了在不同价格水平下，生产者愿意供应的商品或服务数量。它是微观经济学中的一个基本概念，与需求曲线一起决定了市场均衡价格和数量。 来源
• 📊 影响因素 影响供应曲线的因素包括生产成本、技术进步、政府政策、消费者偏好等。当这些因素发生变化时，供应曲线也会随之发生移动。 来源
• 📉 短期和长期 在短期内，生产者可能无法改变生产规模，因此供应曲线相对固定。但在长期内，生产者可以调整生产规模，因此供应曲线更加灵活。 来源

供给曲线

理论到实践到体系的巨大鸿沟

中国有哪些相对优势资源？

Map 地图

演讲力

反常识

杠杆

不对称

复利

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Long-term

Convince 说服力

思维方式

Marketing

商业模型

物理

思考

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军事

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调整！

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Mental Model 心智模型

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The man who sees the essence in one second naturally possess the different fate with that spends half his life yet not seeing the essence of a thing.
那些能够在一瞬间看到事物本质的人，和那些花费了半生却看不清事物本质的人有着不同的命运。

— God Father 教父

关于我

关于本人

Li Will's automation

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输出是更好的输入，押注复利和杠杆效应，拿到决策的杠杆