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例子中更多的是时空观，思考当下行为对未来的影响。拓展更多的思维就类似于《六顶思考帽》，里面提到了要用时间的思维看下未来和长期能推演的影响，同时也提到了生态系统，相当于是 多加了 2 个纬度去考虑问题做决策。比如一些 SWOT 模型等，其实相当于是模型思维的又一种理解。 本文和该模型在此阐述和应用的更多的还是未来和现在的联系关系
事情并不总是像表面看上去那样，检查我们决策的长期后果的最好方法是使用二阶思维。当第一个劣质选项证实了你自己的偏见时，这尤其致命。在你提出问题和探索之前，永远不要只抓住第一个可用的选项，无论它当时看起来是多么好，多么完美。
“Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions, and it is especially deadly when the first inferior option confirms your own biases. Never seize on the first available option, no matter how good it seems, before you’ve asked questions and explored.” —Ray Dalio
一阶思维：快速而简单
当我们寻找只解决眼前问题而不考虑后果的东西时，就会发生这种情况。例如，你可以认为这是我饿了，所以我们吃一块巧克力吧。
二阶思维：更加深思熟虑
它从互动和时间的角度进行思考，理解尽管我们有意图，但我们的干预往往会造成伤害。二阶思考者会问自己这样一个问题：“然后呢？”这意味着要考虑在饥饿时考虑不停的吃巧克力棒的后果，并以此来指导您的决定。如果你这样做，你就更有可能吃到健康的东西。
第一层思维看起来很相似。每个人都得出相同的结论。这就是事情变得有趣的地方。通向超越他人思考的道路不可能来自于一阶思维。它必须来自二阶思维。
非凡的表现来自于看到别人看不到的东西。
‣ 这部分想到的更多是横向的拆分，拆成更细颗粒度的这种，能不能纵向突破呢？
纵向就是求导，看各自因素的变化率分布，停留在一阶看权重和拆分因素，但二阶里会有新的增量和突破？再基本原理想想看如何应用吧
如何提高二阶思考的能力？
Here are three ways you can use to put second order thinking into practice today.
- Always ask yourself “And then what?”
- Think through time — What do the consequences look like in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 Years?
- Create templates like the second image above with 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order consequences. Identify your decision and think through and write down the consequences. If you review these regularly you’ll be able to help calibrate your thinking.
- (Bonus) If you’re using this to think about business decisions, ask yourself how important parts of the ecosystem are likely to respond. How will employees deal with this? What will my competitors likely do? What about my suppliers? What about the regulators? Often the answer will be little to no impact, but you want to understand the immediate and second-order consequences before you make the decision.
A lot of extraordinary things in life are the result of things that are first-order negative, second order positive. So just because things look like they have no immediate payoff, doesn’t mean that’s the case. All it means is that you’ll have less competition if the second and third order consequences are positive because everyone who thinks at the first order won’t think things through.
“睿智就是充分了解当下行为会导致的长期结果，并总是能选择对长期有利的行动执行下去”
Definition of wisdom: know the long-term consequences of your actions
Wisdom applied to external problems is judgement, they’re highly linked;
knowing the long-term consequences of your actions and then making the right decision to capitalize on that一个智慧而富有判断力的人，首先要知道个人行为的长期后果，然后做出正确的决策并付诸行动 —Naval
- 作者:Will_Li
- 链接:https://daxinex.com/article/second-order_thinking
- 声明:本文采用 CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 许可协议，转载请注明出处。