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WEALTHWealth vs MoneyHow to build wealth?Specific Knowledge: Find your thing and build itAll about Long-termTake on AccountabilityFind a position of Leverage*Prioritize and Focus, Be PatientAbout LuckyJUDGEMENTDefine JudgementLearn the Skills of Decision-makingCollect Mental ModelLearn to Love to Read
WEALTH
Wealth vs Money
Money:
- how we transfer wealth,
- social credits
- the ability to have credits and debits of other people’s time
Wealth:
- assets that earn while you sleep
- businesses and assets that create passive income
How to build wealth?
Go figure out which one of those things you can provide for society that it
does not yet know how to get
, but it will want
, and providing it is natural to you
, within your skill set and capabilities.Then, you have to figure out how to
scale it
because if you only build one, that’s not enough. You’ve got to build thousands, or hundreds of thousands, millions, even billions of them so everybody can have one.- 需求:Society/Customer Needs
- 供给:仍不知道如何靠自己做到或获取到
- 规模化:做大!
Specific Knowledge: Find your thing and build it
No one can compete with you on being you. Most of life is a search forwho and what needs you
the most (这个跟之前认知不一致,类比《新世界》里的电梯战神,是我要COVER别人,而非别人COVER我!
Find a thing that you are very good at, interested in, feeling like play to me, but it looks like work to others.
SK is mostly found much more by pursuing your
innate talents
, your genuine curiosity
and passion
如何把握时代红利?
→ 唯一的不变是变化,利用积累起来的复利模型
→ Things change fast now, now, you have to come up to speed on a new profession within
nine months
, and it’s obsolete four years later
. But within those three productive years, you can get very wealthy.→ Build Foundations: It’s much better to be at 9/10 or 10/10 on foundations than to try and get super deep into things(P29)
Personal Thoughts ‣
要找到复利的适用性,看到一句话觉得非常对,在有形领域,复利总是受到物理限制和收益递减的影响。无形资产可以更自由地组合(这就是 Naval 所谓的 code/media/reputaion/knowledge 等)
All about Long-term
Playiterated games(迭代博弈)
. All the returns in life, whether in wealth, relationships, or knowledge, come from compound interest.
有哪几种形式的资产符合长期价值? #复利
- Capital
- Business relationships
- Reputation
- Credibility
- Health
- Knowledge(Foundation much more important)
相信Less is more, 99% of effort is wasted, when you find the 1 percent of your discipline which will not be wasted, which you’ll be able to invest in for the rest of your life and has meaning to you—go all-in and forget about the rest
经营业务之前先试图建立业务关系完全是浪费时间,Naval的人生哲学:Be a maker who makes something interesting people want. Show your craft, practice your craft, and the right people will eventually find you. 正如龙头所说,先做成一件事,会不断积累名誉声望等,打胜仗并庆功
‣ Relationship 关于关系这块,可以拆分更多,书里的内容还是很不错的,摘录一下
硅谷有一位叫吉尔的天使投资人,我很喜欢跟他共事。原因是我知道在交易过程中,他会竭尽全力为我提供额外的利益。如果交易另有好处,他一定会把好处给我。如果产生了多余的成本,他就会自掏腰包,甚至对我提都不提。因为他毫无保留地对我好,于是我几乎所有交易都会找他,尽量让他参与其中。我也会不计成本地对他好。这种互信的关系就充分体现了复利的价值。
Thoughts: 这里更多是点的层面,我在场,但毫无疑问可以做得更好一些。Reputation个人声誉感觉是面的层面,要么是通过客户做口碑传播,要么是通过各种市场渠道做展示和转化,总之B端一样有复利效应的,信任基础会更强,但确实这块的沉淀还不足够。
Take on Accountability
To build credibility, you have to do it under your own name as much as possible, which is a double-edged thing.
Clear accountability is import, without it, you don’t have incentives. But you also take risks.
双刃剑但应该这样做, 因为
最大损失有限
,而期望收益无穷大
,只需要be honest to face it, people should take on a lot more accountability than they do.Find a position of Leverage
Three broad classes of leverage:
Labor
: the worst form that you could possibly use
Money
: every time you make a decision, you multiply it with money. It scales very, very well, if you get good at managing capital, you can manage more and more capital much more easily than you can manage more and more people
- Products with no marginal cost of replication:
media, code
You’re never going to get rich renting out your time Earn with your mind, not your time
With a leveraged worker, judgement is far more important than how much time they put in or how hard they work
努力工作或许会给人带来快感和满足感,但实际的效益不如找对方向,加了杠杆的一般化input选手
Forty hour work weeks are a relic of the Industrial Age. Knowledge workers function like athletes—train and sprint, then rest and reassess
Learn to
sell
, learn to build
. If you can do both
, you will be unstoppable.- Build: hard and multivariate, can include design, development, manufacturing, logistics, procurement, even be designing and operating a service, has many many definitions
- Sell: not necessarily mean selling to individual customers, but it can mean marketing, communicating, recruiting, raising money, inspiring people, doing PR(公共关系Public Relationships). It’s a broad umbrella category.
Take real estate business for example
Let’s talk more about the real estate business.
- The worst kind of job is someone who’s doing labor to repair a house.
Maybe you get paid ten dollars or twenty dollars an hour. You go to people’s houses, your boss demands you’re there at 8:00 a.m., and you repair your piece of the house. Here, you have zero leverage. You have some accountability, but not really, because your accountability is to your boss, not to the client. You don’t have any real specific knowledge, since what you’re doing is labor lots of people can do. You’re not going to get paid a lot. You’re getting paid minimum wage plus a little bit for your skill and your time.
- The next level up might be the general contractor working on the house for the owner.
They may be getting paid $50,000 to do the whole project, then they’re paying the labor fifteen dollars an hour and they’re keeping the difference. A general contractor is obviously a better place to be. But how do we measure it? How do we know it’s better? Well, we know it’s better because this person has some accountability. They’re responsible for the outcome, they have to sweat at night if things aren’t working. Contractors have leverage through laborers working for them. They also have little bit more specific knowledge: how to organize a team, make them show up on time, and how to deal with city regulations.
- The next level up might be a real estate developer.
A developer is someone who’s going to buy a property, hire a bunch of contractors, and transform it into something higher value. They probably have to take out a loan to buy a house or go to investors to raise money. They buy the old house, tear it down, rebuild it, and sell it. Instead of $50,000 like the general contractor, or fifteen dollars an hour like the laborer, the developer might be able to make a million dollars or half a million dollars in profit when they sell the house for more than they bought it for, including the expenses of construction. But now, notice what is required from the developer: a very high level of accountability. The developer takes on more risk, more accountability, has more leverage, and needs to have more specific knowledge. They need to understand fundraising, city regulations, where the real estate market is headed, and whether they should take the risk or not. It is more difficult.
- The next level up might be someone who’s managing money in a real estate fund.
They have an enormous amount of capital leverage. They’re dealing with lots and lots of developers, and they’re buying huge amounts of housing inventory. [74] One level beyond that might be somebody who says, “Actually, I want to bring the maximum leverage to bear in this market and the maximum specific knowledge.” That person would say, “Well, I understand real estate, and I understand everything from basic housing construction, to building properties and selling them, to how real estate markets move and thrive, and I also understand the technology business. I understand how to recruit developers, how to write code, and how to build a good product, and I understand how to raise money from venture capitalists, how to return it, and how all of that works.” Obviously, not a single person may know this. You may pull a team together to do it where each have different skill sets, but that combined entity would have specific knowledge in technology and in real estate. It would have massive accountability because that company’s name would be a very high-risk, high-reward effort attached to the whole thing, and people would devote their lives to it and take on significant risk. It would have leverage in code with lots of developers. It would have capital with investors putting money in and the founder’s own capital. It would have some of the highest-quality labor you can find, which is high-quality engineers, designers, and marketers who are working on the company. Then, you may end up with a Trulia, Redfin, or Zillow company, and then the upside could potentially be in the billions of dollars, or the hundreds of millions of dollars. [78]
Each level has increasing leverage, increasing accountability, increasingly specific knowledge. You’re adding in moneybased leverage on top of labor-based leverage. Adding in code-based leverage on top of money and labor allows you to actually create something bigger and bigger and get closer and closer to owning all the upside, not just being paid a salary.
*Prioritize and Focus, Be Patient
Value your time at an hourly rate, and ruthlessly spend to save time at that rate. You will never be worth more than you think you’re worth. 如果用花钱的方式节省的时间价值更高,那就花钱,不要犹豫。要想真的赚到钱,要先相信你自己很值钱。
Set a very high personal hourly rate and you have to
stick to
it.Always factor your time into every decision.
→ 大概算了一下,时薪有350元/h,*个4那就是1400元,一小时1000块一天6小时一年下来是200万
→ 按1-1.4K/h来估算吧
Wealth creation is an evolutionarily recentpositive-sum
game. 正和博弈 Status is an oldzero-sum
game. 零和博弈(Politics is an example of a status game) Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
About Being Patient
Apply specific knowledge with leverage and eventually, you will get what you deserve.
It takes time
—even once you have all of these pieces in place, there is an indeterminate amount of time you have to put in. If you’re counting
, you’ll run out of patience
before success actually arrives.About Lucky
Three types of luck:
- Blind luck: something completely out of their control happened, including fortune, fate, etc.
- Luck through persistence, hard work, hustle(折腾), and motion: you’re just generating enough force, hustle and energy for luck to find you
- Build a unique
character
, a uniquebrand
, a uniquemindset
which causes luck to find you(以某种方式塑造自己的性格,之后就由性格决定命运)
Ways to Get Lucky:
Hope
luck finds you
Hustle
until you stumble into it 不停折腾,直到撞到大运
Prepare
the mind and besensitive
to chances others miss
Become the best
at what you do. Refine what you do until this is true. Opportunity will seek you out. Luck becomes your destiny 把你所做的事情做到极致,精益求精,直到名副其实。让机会自动找到你,让运气成为必然。
Yourcharacter
and yourreputation
are things you can build, which will let you take advantage of opportunities other people may characterize as lucky, but you know it wasn’t luck.
Be Patient:
Great people have great outcomes, you just have to be patient.
Remember: it takes time—even once you have all of pieces in place, there is an indeterminate amount of time you have to put in. If you’re counting, you will run out of patience before success actually arrives
JUDGEMENT
There’s no shortcut to smart.
Define Judgement
Overrated: Hard work, how hard you work matters a lot less in the modern economy.
Underrated: Judgement
Definition of wisdom: know the long-term consequences of your actions
Wisdom applied to external problems is judgement, they’re highly linked;
knowing
the long-term
consequences
of your actions
and then making the right decision
to capitalize on
that一个智慧而富有判断力的人,首先要知道个人行为的长期后果,然后做出正确的决策并付诸行动
Learn the Skills of Decision-making
I never ask if “I like it” or “I don’t like it.” I think “this is what it is” or “this is what it isn’t.” —Richard Feynman
I love the blog Farnam Street because it really focuses on helping you be more accurate, an overall better decision-maker.
Decision-making is everything
决策的杠杆效应:非线性回报
事实上,一个决策正确率为80%的人比正确率为70%的人在市场上的价值和获得的回报要高出数百倍。
如果管理者USD 1 billion规模的资产,决策正确率比其他人高出10%,则通过一个判断决策创造出USD 100 millions的价值
随着现代科技的发展、劳动力规模的扩大和资本不断积累,决策也将发挥越来越大的杠杆效应
Collect Mental Model
- Evolution
- Inversion反推法/反向思考
- Complexity Theory
- Economics
Microeconomics and Game theory
- Principle-agent Problem委托和代理问题
- Compound Interest
- Basic Math
arithmetic算法, probability概率论, and statistics统计学
- Black Swans
- Calculus微积分
- Falsifiability可证伪性
‣ 学习日志
这里面没去分优先顺序,看到什么感兴趣就优先学哪部分吧。其中那个跨越鸿沟理论,其实是正态分布来的,可以在概率论那边多学一学。其实很多学科都是串起来的,慢慢积累理论和实践吧
Learn to Love to Read
Readingscience
,math
, andphilosophy
one hour per day
will likely put you at the upper echelon of human success withinseven years
.
统计阅读数量是为了满足虚荣心。知识面越广,思想越独立,读不完的书就越多。不要刻意追求读完多少本书,而要时刻关注可以预测未来趋势的新概念。
- 作者:Will_Li
- 链接:https://daxinex.com/article/naval
- 声明:本文采用 CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 许可协议,转载请注明出处。
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